How success turns allies into competitors

2026-06-11 · Source: Semafor · Field: Business & Management — Corporate Strategy & Leadership, Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning, International Relations & Diplomacy · Depth: Intermediate, extended

Summary

The article examines Ibn Khaldun's "asabiyyah" theory, which posits that initial social cohesion leading to success can eventually erode into internal rivalries. This pattern is applied to OpenAI, founded in 2015 with a unified mission, whose rapid success with GPT models and billions in investment led to internal fractures, exemplified by the 2023 Sam Altman leadership crisis. Similarly, Gulf states, once united by common challenges and cooperation on projects like the Dolphin gas pipeline and shared electricity grid, have transformed into ambitious geopolitical competitors. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE now vie for dominance in AI infrastructure, airlines, and diplomatic influence, shifting the region from collective ascent to strategic competition. The analysis warns that unchecked rivalry weakens groups and suggests creating larger, shared missions, such as regional AI infrastructure or water security initiatives, to renew collective purpose.

Key takeaway

For executives or leaders managing successful organizations, you should proactively identify and invest in new, overarching missions that foster shared value and purpose. Allowing unchecked internal competition, as seen in OpenAI's 2023 crisis or among Gulf states, risks eroding the cohesion that drove initial success. Prioritize collaborative projects like shared AI infrastructure or regional energy grids to maintain unity and long-term strategic advantage.

Key insights

Success born from unity often contains the seeds of internal rivalries and eventual fragmentation.

Principles

• Shared purpose is critical for group formation and initial success.
• Prosperity can erode cohesion, fostering internal competition.
• Larger, common missions can help sustain cooperation amidst success.

Method

To counter internal rivalries, identify and pursue new, overarching projects that create shared value, thereby renewing collective purpose.

In practice

• Invest in collaborative regional AI infrastructure projects.
• Develop shared energy grids and logistics corridors.

Topics

• Geopolitical Competition
• Organizational Dynamics
• AI Infrastructure
• Gulf States
• OpenAI
• Strategic Cooperation

Best for: Executive, Director of AI/ML, Investor

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Editorial summary, takeaway, and curation by AIssential. Original article published by Semafor.