US Economic Outlook, 2026
Summary
Forrester's "US Economic Outlook, 2026" report analyzes the US economy's performance in 2025 and provides projections for 2026. The US economy exceeded expectations in 2025, with stable inflation and unemployment rates. However, organizations face several factors in 2026, including potentially limited returns from technology capital expenditures, particularly AI-related spending, which masks weakness in other investment areas. Consumer spending is increasingly bifurcated, driven by higher-income households, while lower-income households face increased strain from essential expenses and expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies. The labor market is cooling, with job growth significantly slower in 2025 and rising unemployment among younger workers (ages 16-19 increased from 12.3% to 15.7%; ages 20-24 from 7.5% to 8.2% between December 2024 and December 2025).
Key takeaway
For entrepreneurs navigating the 2026 economic landscape, you should adopt "always on" scenario planning to adapt to evolving signals. Focus your investments on customer-centric initiatives and actively work to reduce technical debt, as technology capex may yield uneven returns. Be mindful of the bifurcated consumer market and cooling labor trends when strategizing your market approach and talent acquisition.
Key insights
The US economy shows stability but faces uneven growth, bifurcated consumer spending, and a cooling labor market in 2026.
Principles
- AI investment's broader economic benefits are uncertain.
- Consumer spending patterns are diverging by income group.
In practice
- Prioritize customer-led investments.
- Reduce technical debt.
- Experiment with emerging technologies.
Topics
- US Economic Outlook
- AI Investment
- Consumer Spending Trends
- Labor Market Dynamics
- Business Strategy
Best for: Entrepreneur, Executive, Business Analyst, Investor
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Editorial summary, takeaway, and curation by AIssential. Original article published by Featured Blogs - Forrester.