Who will be the senior engineers of 2035?

2026-04-13 · Source: The Engineering Manager · Field: Technology & Digital — Software Development & Engineering, Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning, Human Resources & Workforce Development · Depth: Intermediate, long

Summary

The future supply of senior engineers by 2035 is uncertain due to current industry trends. Post-COVID layoffs and AI efficiency gains have slowed hiring, particularly for junior roles, with entry-level tech postings dropping 67% since 2022 and employment for software developers aged 22-25 declining nearly 20% from late 2022 peaks. AI is increasingly handling small bug fixes and incremental features, tasks traditionally used for junior engineer training, while managers are stretched thin. The article explores three potential scenarios for 2035: a severe talent crunch, a bifurcation into "vibe coders" and rare deep engineers, or a "tinkerer's precedent" where AI creates new entry points, similar to past technological shifts. This breakdown in the traditional pipeline, which relied on years of mistakes, mentorship, and low-stakes learning, raises concerns about how future engineering judgment will be developed.

Key takeaway

For senior leaders planning AI investments, recognize that cutting junior hiring today is a significant bet on AI progress outpacing talent depreciation. You must stress-test assumptions about future talent availability and measure knowledge concentration on critical systems. Treat junior hiring as strategic R&D, not overhead, to mitigate future talent crunch risks and build institutional knowledge. Invest in developing early-career engineers to ensure a robust, experienced workforce for 2035.

Key insights

The traditional pipeline for developing senior engineers is breaking down, risking a future talent crunch or skill bifurcation.

Principles

• Engineering judgment is built through experiential "scar tissue" from real-world failures.
• Deliberate practice and safe failure environments are crucial for skill development.
• Talent pipeline neglect leads to future skill shortages and market polarization.

In practice

• Mentor juniors actively, exploring AI tools collaboratively.
• Seek out "scar tissue" experiences like on-call rotations.
• Frame junior hiring as strategic R&D, not just cost.

Topics

• AI Workforce Impact
• Engineering Talent Pipeline
• Junior Engineer Development
• Senior Engineer Mentorship
• Skill Development
• Workforce Planning 2035

Best for: CTO, VP of Engineering/Data, Software Engineer, Director of AI/ML, Consultant

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Editorial summary, takeaway, and curation by AIssential. Original article published by The Engineering Manager.