China has all but caught up. The US is not going to “win” the AI war. Here’s what we should do instead.

2025-06-07 · Source: Marcus on AI · Field: Government & Public Sector — Public Policy & Governance, International Relations & Diplomacy · Depth: Fundamental Awareness, medium

Summary

Chinese AI companies, including Moonshot.AI with its Kimi K3 model, Z.ai's GLM 5.2, and Alibaba's Qwen, have rapidly advanced to parity with leading American models. Kimi K3, notably, is an open-weight model available for local download, challenging the proprietary business models of US firms like OpenAI and Anthropic and potentially impacting their IPO prospects. This development undermines the notion of a US "win" in the AI race, suggesting the US government's strategy of going "all-in" on generative AI and relying on Silicon Valley narratives was a blunder. The author previously predicted the lack of a technical moat, a convergence to a tie with China, and the unprofitability of US AI companies, which now appear to be materializing.

Key takeaway

For US policymakers evaluating AI strategy, recognize that the "AI war" is not a zero-sum game the US can "win" by protectionism or bailouts. Instead, investigate past strategic errors and consider shifting towards making AI a global public good, potentially through an international "CERN for AI" initiative. This approach could foster collaboration and dedicate AI to scientific and medical advancements, transforming the competitive landscape.

Key insights

China's AI parity challenges US dominance and business models, necessitating a strategic shift from a zero-sum "AI war" mentality.

Principles

• Technical moats in AI are often ephemeral.
• AI competition is an industrial systems race.
• Open-weight models disrupt closed-source markets.

Topics

• US-China AI Competition
• AI Policy
• Open-weight Models
• AI Business Models
• Global Public Good AI
• National AI Strategy

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Editorial summary, takeaway, and curation by AIssential. Original article published by Marcus on AI.