E-Commerce Will Drive Half Of Europe-5 Retail Sales Growth By 2030

2026-02-05 · Source: Featured Blogs - Forrester · Field: Retail & Consumer Goods — Retail Technology & Operations, Customer Experience & Engagement, Retail Analytics & Intelligence · Depth: Intermediate, quick

Summary

Forrester's "Europe-5 Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2025 To 2030" projects total retail sales in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK will reach €2.8 trillion by 2030, with growth equally split between in-store and e-commerce. E-commerce is set to capture 21% of total retail sales by 2030, driven by factors like price, selection, convenience, an expanding online buyer population, cross-border growth, AI investments (e.g., Zalando's discovery feed), and the expansion of Chinese platforms like AliExpress and Temu. Retail media spending in Europe is expected to exceed $43 billion by 2030, becoming a highly profitable revenue stream, as demonstrated by Ahold Delhaize achieving e-commerce profitability in H1 2025. In-store sales will still account for €2.2 trillion by 2030, with retailers like Primark, B&Q, Carrefour, and Inditex integrating physical stores into omnichannel strategies through click-and-collect services and new convenience store openings.

Key takeaway

For AI Product Managers developing retail strategies, recognize that while e-commerce will grow to 21% of sales by 2030, physical stores remain vital. Focus your product roadmap on integrating AI-powered discovery and efficient fulfillment for online channels, while simultaneously enhancing in-store experiences with services like click-and-collect. Your efforts should support a cohesive omnichannel customer journey, leveraging retail media for new revenue streams.

Key insights

European retail is poised for significant e-commerce growth while physical stores remain central to omnichannel strategies.

Principles

• Economic stability drives retail growth.
• Omnichannel integration is crucial for retailers.
• Retail media monetizes traffic and first-party data.

In practice

• Invest in AI for enhanced online discovery.
• Expand click-and-collect services.
• Scale fulfillment capacity for e-commerce profitability.

Topics

• European E-commerce
• Retail Transformation
• AI in Retail
• Retail Media
• Omnichannel Retail

Best for: AI Product Manager, Executive, Business Analyst, Consultant

Related on AIssential

• Retailers turn to AI for productivity, personalized shopping — Retailers are rapidly adopting AI for both internal productivity and customer-facing personalization, yielding measurable business benefits.
• AI traffic to US retailers rose 393% in Q1, and it’s boosting their revenue too — AI-driven retail traffic is rapidly growing and outperforming human traffic in conversion and revenue.
• US Tech Forecast 2026 For Retail: Make Every Tech Dollar Count — Retail tech spending will surge to $113 billion in 2026, driven by AI, software, and omnichannel needs focused on profitability.
• Winning in the era of autonomous AI shoppers — Autonomous AI agents are rapidly reshaping retail, demanding immediate foundational shifts from retailers to remain competitive.
• Inside Instacart's AI-Powered Smart Shopping Cart | NVIDIA AI Podcast Ep. 302 — Instacart foresees a unified, AI-driven shopping experience integrating online and in-store data for personalization within 5-10 years.
• Merchantee secures €1.8M for European marketplace expansion — AI-driven marketplace intelligence automates complex e-commerce decisions, optimizing pricing, promotions, and catalogue performance across multiple platforms.

Open in AIssential →

Editorial summary, takeaway, and curation by AIssential. Original article published by Featured Blogs - Forrester.