Roadmapping the AI race to help ensure safe development of AGI

2018-09-27 · Source: AI Roadmap Institute Blog - Medium · Field: Technology & Digital — Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning, Emerging Technologies & Innovation · Depth: Intermediate, long

Summary

This article, published in September 2018, presents a visual roadmap depicting three hypothetical scenarios for the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) from the perspective of an imaginary company, C1. The roadmap uses traffic-light color coding to visualize potential outcomes, focusing on the "AI race" and its implications for safety. Scenario 1 explores the development of dangerous AGI due to premature deployment, potentially leading to loss of control and societal disruption, but also a possible safety consortium. Scenario 2 examines AGI development with a focus on safety, considering both collaborative and stealth approaches, which could result in multiple AGIs or a monopoly. Scenario 3 outlines a smooth transition from narrow AI to AGI, emphasizing gradual infrastructure build-up and slower power shifts, potentially leading to a universal basic income model. The roadmap aims to provoke discussion on AGI's role in paradigm shifts.

Key takeaway

For research scientists and policy makers engaged in AGI development, understanding these hypothetical scenarios is crucial for proactive risk mitigation. You should prioritize international collaboration and the establishment of robust AI safety consortia to prevent uncontrolled AGI deployment and mitigate societal disruptions. Additionally, begin planning for economic shifts, such as universal basic income, to address potential widespread job automation and ensure equitable distribution of AGI benefits.

Key insights

Roadmapping AGI development helps anticipate risks and opportunities, especially concerning safety and societal impact.

Principles

• Collaboration mitigates AGI race risks.
• AGI necessitates new economic models.
• Early safety focus prevents future crises.

Method

The roadmap uses hypothetical scenarios and traffic-light color coding to visualize AGI development pathways, actor decisions, and potential outcomes, emphasizing safety implications and societal shifts.

In practice

• Form an AI safety consortium.
• Plan for universal basic income.
• Foster international collaboration.

Topics

• Artificial General Intelligence
• AI Safety
• AI Race
• AI Governance
• Universal Basic Income

Best for: AI Ethicist, Policy Maker, Research Scientist

Related on AIssential

• AVOIDING THE PRECIPICE — Avoiding an AGI development race is crucial to prevent safety compromises and requires broad, cooperative engagement.
• My AI Opinions — The future of AI involves complex, probabilistic timelines for AGI, superintelligence, and critical safety and geopolitical challenges.
• 45 - Samuel Albanie on DeepMind's AGI Safety Approach — A technical AGI safety agenda relies on assumptions about AI development and proposes iterative risk mitigation strategies.
• Report from the AI Race Avoidance Workshop — Mitigating an AI race requires understanding its dynamics, incentivizing cooperation, and fostering global, transparent dialogue.
• Anthropic’s Safety Superpower — Anthropic's "safety" narrative strategically aligns with its economic and power imperatives to control frontier AI development and user data.
• Our principles — OpenAI's principles prioritize democratized, empowering, and universally prosperous AGI development with resilience and adaptability.

Open in AIssential →

Editorial summary, takeaway, and curation by AIssential. Original article published by AI Roadmap Institute Blog - Medium.