Salesforce at 2.8x ARR, HubSpot Down 56%, Adobe at 11x Earnings: Are They Just Too Oversold Now?

2026-06-22 · Source: SaaStrAI · Field: Finance & Economics — Capital Markets & Investment Management, Economic Analysis & Policy · Depth: Intermediate, long

Summary

The B2B software market faced a "SaaSpocalypse" in February, losing approximately \$285 billion in market cap due to fears that AI agents would make per-seat licensing obsolete. While the broader software index rebounded over 40% from April lows, major players like Salesforce, HubSpot, and Adobe continued to decline. Salesforce's Agentforce ARR grew 205% year-over-year to \$1.2 billion, utilizing consumption-based pricing. HubSpot, despite a 56% stock drop, showed 23% revenue growth and ARR of \$3.45 billion, with early AI monetization. Adobe, down 49% over the past year, posted record revenue, with AI-first ARR tripling past \$500 million, bolstered by IP indemnification for Firefly. This contrasts with infrastructure software firms like Datadog (up 64%) and CrowdStrike (up 46%), which benefit from increased AI agent deployment. The analysis questions if these "Big 3" are oversold, given their accelerating AI product lines and solid financial metrics.

Key takeaway

For investors evaluating B2B software, recognize that the "SaaSpocalypse" selloff may have created oversold opportunities in companies like Salesforce, HubSpot, and Adobe. Focus on vendors demonstrating strong AI revenue growth and a shift towards consumption-based or value-added monetization models, rather than solely per-seat licensing. Prioritize solutions with clear IP indemnification for AI-generated content, as this provides a critical enterprise moat. Your due diligence should confirm if AI lines are truly additive, not just substituting core revenue, to capitalize on potential market dislocations.

Key insights

The market is re-evaluating B2B software based on AI monetization models, favoring consumption-based over per-seat.

Principles

• AI monetization shifts from per-seat to consumption-based models.
• IP indemnification creates a strong moat for AI-powered creative tools.
• Infrastructure software benefits directly from increased AI agent deployment.

In practice

• Evaluate software vendors' AI monetization beyond per-seat licensing.
• Prioritize AI solutions offering IP indemnification for enterprise use.
• Invest in infrastructure software that scales with AI agent adoption.

Topics

• B2B Software Valuation
• AI Monetization
• Consumption-Based Pricing
• Salesforce Agentforce
• Adobe Firefly
• Software Market Trends

Best for: CTO, Executive, AI Product Manager, Director of AI/ML, VP of Engineering/Data, Investor

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Editorial summary, takeaway, and curation by AIssential. Original article published by SaaStrAI.