May 14, 2026Policy2028: Two scenarios for global AI leadership

2026-05-14 · Source: Anthropic Research · Field: Government & Public Sector — Public Policy & Governance, International Relations & Diplomacy, Public Safety & Security · Depth: Intermediate, extended

Summary

Anthropic's new paper, "2028: Two scenarios for global AI leadership," outlines the critical competition between the US and China for AI dominance, emphasizing the need for democracies to maintain their lead. The paper highlights that access to advanced computer chips, or "compute," is the most crucial factor in AI development, where American companies currently hold a significant advantage due to innovation and export controls. However, Chinese AI labs remain competitive by exploiting loopholes in these controls and conducting "distillation attacks" to illicitly extract innovations from US models. The analysis presents two scenarios for 2028: one where the US successfully defends its compute advantage, leading to democratic control over AI norms, and another where inaction allows China to catch up, enabling automated repression and authoritarian influence. The paper stresses the urgency of policy action to secure a 12-24 month lead in frontier AI capabilities.

Key takeaway

For CTOs and VPs of Engineering/Data weighing strategic AI investments and partnerships, understanding the geopolitical landscape is paramount. Your organizations should prioritize securing access to advanced compute and integrating AI solutions from democratic nations to align with global norms and national security interests. Actively support policies that strengthen export controls and deter intellectual property theft to ensure a stable, innovation-driven AI ecosystem, mitigating risks associated with authoritarian AI development and deployment.

Key insights

Maintaining a compute advantage is critical for democracies to lead in shaping global AI norms and preventing authoritarian control.

Principles

• Compute advantage compounds into algorithmic advantage.
• AI is a dual-use technology with military and societal implications.
• A neck-and-neck race disincentivizes responsible AI development.

Method

The proposed method involves tightening export controls on advanced compute, disrupting distillation attacks, and accelerating democracies' adoption and global distribution of AI systems to secure a lasting lead.

In practice

• Tighten export controls on advanced chips and SME.
• Legislate against and detect distillation attacks.
• Promote global adoption of American AI infrastructure.

Topics

• Global AI Leadership
• US-China AI Competition
• AI Compute Advantage
• Export Controls
• Distillation Attacks

Best for: CTO, VP of Engineering/Data, Director of AI/ML, Policy Maker, Executive, Consultant

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Editorial summary, takeaway, and curation by AIssential. Original article published by Anthropic Research.