Ben Horowitz on Winning vs Picking

2026-02-04 · Source: a16z · Field: Finance & Economics — Capital Markets & Investment Management · Depth: Fundamental Awareness, quick

Summary

Achieving superior investment returns hinges on two critical factors: selecting the right deals and successfully securing participation in them. The ability to "win" a deal, meaning to successfully invest in it, constitutes a significantly larger portion of the equation for generating top-tier returns than commonly acknowledged. Without the capacity to win deals, even the most astute selection process will not yield good returns. Furthermore, a proven track record of winning desirable deals attracts top-tier co-investors and "pickers" who seek to participate in the most promising opportunities, thereby reinforcing the ability to access and secure future high-quality investments.

Key takeaway

For investors seeking to maximize portfolio returns, your primary focus should be on enhancing your ability to secure participation in desired deals. Cultivating a reputation as a "winner" not only directly improves your investment outcomes but also attracts other high-caliber investors, expanding your access to future top-tier opportunities. Prioritize strategies that improve your deal-winning percentage.

Key insights

Winning investment deals is more critical for top returns than just picking them.

Principles

• Deal access drives superior returns.
• Winning attracts top co-investors.

In practice

• Prioritize deal access strategies.
• Cultivate a reputation for winning.

Topics

• Investment Strategy
• Deal Acquisition
• Investor Relations
• Investment Returns

Best for: Investor, Entrepreneur

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Editorial summary, takeaway, and curation by AIssential. Original article published by a16z.