Can you hit a home run off of Paul Skenes?

2026-04-15 · Source: Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science · Field: Science & Research — Mathematics & Computational Sciences, Physical Sciences & Chemistry · Depth: Fundamental Awareness, quick

Summary

Professor Gelman received an email posing a hypothetical baseball scenario: whether an unathletic, inexperienced 5'7", 140lb senior could hit a home run off a 100 mph pitch from Paul Skenes at PNC Park (320 ft shortest dimension) given an infinite number of attempts without strength loss or gain, and no wind. The student argued that infinite possibilities would eventually lead to a perfect swing, contact, and launch angle. Professor Gelman's initial, unanalyzed response was that it would be impossible, primarily because the individual likely couldn't swing the bat fast enough to generate the necessary power, despite the concept of infinite tries.

Key takeaway

For anyone considering scenarios involving "infinite attempts" to overcome physical limitations, you should first assess the fundamental physics involved. Even with unlimited tries, a lack of necessary bat speed or physical capability means a desired outcome, like hitting a home run, remains impossible. Focus on core physical requirements before considering statistical probabilities.

Key insights

Infinite attempts do not overcome fundamental physical limitations in a constrained system.

Principles

• Physical constraints limit outcomes regardless of trial count.
• Baseball success requires specific bat speed and contact mechanics.

Topics

• Baseball Analytics
• Probability Theory
• Infinite Attempts
• Paul Skenes
• Batting Mechanics

Best for: General Interest

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Editorial summary, takeaway, and curation by AIssential. Original article published by Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.