The Illusion of Progress in Software Development: Why Velocity Is a Dangerous Metric

2026-06-26 · Source: GOTO Conferences · Field: Technology & Digital — Software Development & Engineering, Project & Product Management · Depth: Intermediate, quick

Summary

The discussion highlights the inherent dangers of relying on proxy metrics in software development, which are indirect measurements used when direct assessment is unfeasible. While sometimes necessary, such as using bug counts to gauge software quality, the critical issue arises when these proxies are mistaken for the actual measure. A prime example is "velocity," often perceived as an indicator of progress but frequently creating an illusion rather than reflecting true value delivery. The speaker emphasizes that treating internal QA bug counts as leading indicators, rather than customer complaints as lagging indicators, can be misleading. Instead, the focus should shift to more direct measures like cycle time, which offers a more accurate representation of delivery speed and value.

Key takeaway

For Engineering Managers focused on team performance, relying solely on velocity metrics can mask actual value delivery. You should critically evaluate your current proxy metrics, especially those not directly tied to customer outcomes. Instead, prioritize tracking cycle time to gain a more accurate understanding of your team's efficiency and impact. This shift helps avoid the illusion of progress and ensures efforts align with tangible business value.

Key insights

Mistaking proxy metrics for direct measures, like velocity for value delivery, creates an illusion of progress in software development.

Principles

• Proxy metrics are indirect measures.
• Velocity often creates an illusion of progress.
• Prioritize cycle time over velocity for value.

In practice

• Do not equate velocity with value delivery.
• Use customer complaints for quality assessment.
• Track cycle time for true delivery speed.

Topics

• Proxy Metrics
• Software Development Metrics
• Velocity Metric
• Cycle Time
• Software Quality
• Value Delivery

Best for: VP of Engineering/Data, Product Manager, Software Engineer, Consultant

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Editorial summary, takeaway, and curation by AIssential. Original article published by GOTO Conferences.