Here we go again - how Fubini’s Law might explain AI strategy weaknesses

2026-07-16 · Source: AI adoption – diginomica · Field: Business & Management — Corporate Strategy & Leadership, Human Resources & Workforce Development, Operations & Process Management · Depth: Intermediate, long

Summary

The article critiques current AI initiatives, asserting that software vendors and customers often lack comprehensive planning, resulting in misaligned strategies. It applies "Fubini's Law," a 1990s technology maxim outlining four or five stages of tech adoption, to explain these weaknesses. Initially, AI is used to automate existing tasks faster (Law #1), a strategy that yielded major productivity gains in past tech waves but offers diminishing returns now. The second stage, using technology for new things, is currently dominated by AI-driven fraud and minor application assists, not transformative capabilities. The subsequent stages—changing lifestyles/workstyles and society—remain largely unrealized due to insufficient imagination and incremental approaches. The author concludes that true AI innovation, leading to new technologies, is hindered by a focus on small improvements, advocating for a bold, premeditated AI strategy.

Key takeaway

For CTOs or Directors of AI/ML evaluating their firm's AI strategy, recognize that current AI adoption often mirrors past technology missteps, yielding diminishing returns from incremental automation. You must move beyond simply speeding up existing processes and proactively design a bold, comprehensive strategy. This involves assessing ROI, researching hosting impacts, identifying new "person in the middle" roles, and developing countermeasures for citizen-AI threats, ensuring your investments drive transformative value, not just minor assists.

Key insights

Fubini's Law reveals current AI strategies repeat past tech adoption mistakes, focusing on incremental gains instead of transformative innovation.

Principles

• New tech initially speeds up existing processes.
• Transformative change requires radical reimagination.
• Complementary technologies drive new innovation waves.

In practice

• Assess AI initiative ROI and prioritization criteria.
• Develop countermeasures for citizen-AI based threats.

Topics

• AI Strategy
• Fubini's Law
• Technology Adoption
• Digital Transformation
• Workforce Impact
• Citizen AI Threats

Best for: CTO, Director of AI/ML, Consultant

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Editorial summary, takeaway, and curation by AIssential. Original article published by AI adoption – diginomica.