Crunchbase Predicts: Why Top VCs Expect More Venture Dollars, Bigger Rounds And Fewer Winners In 2026

2026-01-05 · Source: Artificial intelligence - Crunchbase News · Field: Finance & Economics — Capital Markets & Investment Management, Economic Analysis & Policy, Venture Capital & Startup Investment · Depth: Intermediate, medium

Summary

Global venture investment in 2025 reached $205 billion by mid-year, a 32% increase from H1 2024, positioning it as the third-highest on record, largely driven by AI. The year saw the two largest venture fundings ever, both AI-related: Scale AI with $14.3 billion in Q2 and OpenAI with $40 billion in Q1. For 2026, venture capitalists George Mathew, Tim Tully, Matt Murphy, and Anders Ranum predict a 10-25% increase in total dollars deployed, concentrating in growth-stage AI infrastructure and foundational models. While AI-native companies will see valuations rise, other sectors, particularly vertical SaaS without AI differentiation, climate tech, and crypto, are expected to lose investment share. Liquidity is anticipated to improve through more IPOs and M&A activity.

Key takeaway

For Directors of AI/ML evaluating strategic investments, your focus should remain on AI infrastructure, agentic capabilities, and vertical AI solutions, as these are projected to attract the largest capital inflows and command premium valuations in 2026. Be wary of "AI wrapper" solutions or vertical SaaS without deep AI integration, as these will struggle to secure funding. Prioritize companies demonstrating strong fundamentals, revenue growth, and efficiency to align with investor preferences for real AI advantage.

Key insights

AI continues to drive significant venture capital growth, with 2026 expected to see increased deployment and a focus on AI infrastructure.

Principles

• AI funding will constitute about half of total venture funding.
• Scale and domain expertise are crucial for venture investors.
• Hyper-growth AI companies command premium valuations.

In practice

• Focus on AI infrastructure, defense tech, and robotics for investment.
• Prioritize companies with real revenue and AI leverage.
• Seek liquidity through M&A and secondaries for non-IPO-ready firms.

Topics

• Venture Capital Funding
• AI Investment
• AI Infrastructure
• Foundation Models
• Market Liquidity

Best for: Investor, Entrepreneur, Director of AI/ML

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Editorial summary, takeaway, and curation by AIssential. Original article published by Artificial intelligence - Crunchbase News.