The fifth annual Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition is open!

2026-02-11 · Source: Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science · Field: Technology & Digital — Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning, Data Science & Analytics · Depth: Intermediate, quick

Summary

The fifth annual Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition is now open, inviting participants to forecast the blooming date of cherry trees. This year's competition includes a new "Petals and Probabilities" hackathon, hosted by the Washington Statistical Society at Georgetown University on February 21st, 2026, from 9 AM to 4 PM. The hackathon features a lunch presentation by Scott Olesen, Lead Data Scientist at the CDC's Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics, and offers free food and monetary prizes. While hackathon participation is optional for the main competition, students from undergraduate to PhD levels are encouraged to register and bring a laptop. The event is sponsored by the Washington Statistical Society, the American Statistical Association, and the Massive Data Institute at Georgetown University.

Key takeaway

For students interested in practical data science and statistical forecasting, participating in the Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition or its associated hackathon offers a valuable opportunity. You can apply analytical skills to a real-world prediction challenge, network with professionals like Scott Olesen from the CDC, and potentially win monetary prizes. Consider registering for the hackathon to gain hands-on experience and connect with the statistical community.

Key insights

An annual competition and hackathon challenge participants to predict cherry blossom bloom dates using statistical methods.

Principles

• Forecasting benefits from collaborative, data-driven approaches.
• Statistical competitions can engage students in practical applications.

In practice

• Participate in the Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition.
• Attend the "Petals and Probabilities" hackathon on Feb 21, 2026.

Topics

• Cherry Blossom Prediction
• Statistical Modeling
• Data Science Competitions
• Predictive Analytics
• Hackathons

Best for: AI Student, Data Scientist, Research Scientist

Related on AIssential

• So You Think You Can ANALYZE? (Data Content Creator Hackathon) — Effective hackathon solutions blend creative problem-solving with practical, demonstrable execution under tight constraints.
• Missing forecasts — Lizzie discusses the International Cherry Blossom Prediction competition, co-run with Jonathan Auerbach and David Kepplinger, which recently released forecasts indicating Vancouver blossoms this month…
• Podcast coming on Bayesian workflow! With a contest! — A podcast interview and contest offer a unique opportunity to engage with authors of the "Bayesian Workflow" book.
• ARC Prize 2025 Top Score 1st Place NVARC — Offline synthetic data generation and test-time adaptation are crucial for competitive machine learning success under compute constraints.
• Build Small Hackathon — The hackathon promotes building practical or creative AI applications using models under 32 billion parameters.
• You Will Learn More From One Failed Kaggle Submission Than From Ten Completed Online Courses — Genuine data science competence stems from practical problem-solving and learning from failure, not passive course consumption.

Open in AIssential →

Editorial summary, takeaway, and curation by AIssential. Original article published by Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.