🔮 Exponential View #563: The Citrini craze; human cognition; the most aggressive AI regulation; OpenAI spikes; COBOL returns; bye‑bye tax filing++

2026-03-01 · Source: Exponential View · Field: Technology & Digital — Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning, Economic Analysis & Policy, Public Policy & Governance · Depth: Advanced, short

Summary

The article explores the evolving relationship between human cognition and AI, highlighting themes from an "AI Vistas dialogue" that discussed whether humans control AI tools or vice-versa. Key points include the concept of a "cognitive exoskeleton" influencing choices, the need to protect human generative thinking from AI offloading, and the importance of institutions focusing on "invisible work" like intuition and social skills as AI handles visible tasks. It also critiques a speculative 2028 scenario by Citrini, which predicted 10.2% unemployment and a 38% S&P drop due to AI disruption, arguing it overstates immediate impact by ignoring adaptation and compute scarcity. The piece notes that while AI is undercutting mid-market SaaS, the destruction will be slowed by factors like the compute crunch, allowing for adaptation. Additionally, the US government has designated Anthropic a national security supply chain risk, barring federal contractors from using its technology due to its refusal to lift safety constraints on military use, an action seen as disproportionate and indicative of outdated regulatory frameworks.

Key takeaway

For CTOs and VPs of Engineering evaluating AI integration strategies, recognize that while AI offers significant capability gains, its disruptive economic impact will be attenuated by compute constraints and the need for human adaptation. Prioritize safeguarding your team's core creative and intuitive functions from automation, and advocate for updated regulatory frameworks that accurately address AI's unique risks and capabilities, rather than relying on outdated statutes.

Key insights

AI's rapid evolution challenges human autonomy, economic structures, and regulatory frameworks, demanding adaptation and new policy.

Principles

• Protect human generative core from AI offloading.
• Compute scarcity will slow AI diffusion.
• Markets show destruction before new possibilities.

In practice

• Identify where your best thinking happens and ring-fence it.
• Focus on building attention, intuition, and social skills.

Topics

• AI Ethics
• AI Economic Impact
• AI Regulation
• Compute Scarcity
• Cognitive Augmentation

Best for: CTO, VP of Engineering/Data, Executive, Director of AI/ML, Investor, Policy Maker

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Editorial summary, takeaway, and curation by AIssential. Original article published by Exponential View.