The Long War: How does the war with Iran end?

2026-03-30 · Source: Thomson Reuters Institute · Field: Business & Management — Corporate Strategy & Leadership, Operations & Process Management, International Business & Trade · Depth: Fundamental Awareness, medium

Summary

The ongoing war with Iran, four weeks in, is unlikely to conclude quickly, contrary to market and business assumptions, with the conflict projected to last quarters rather than weeks. Despite conventional military dominance and the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader, the US failed to neutralize the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN), an asymmetric force that retains 80% of its small-boat fleet and continues to keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, causing Brent crude to surge to \$108 per barrel and creating the largest disruption to global energy supplies in history. Pathways to a rapid resolution are blocked: the Iranian regime has hardened, diplomatic positions are irreconcilable, and the US military posture is escalating with potential ground operations, while allied support remains symbolic. Businesses must stress-test against sustained disruption, as the economic consequences will be a structural disruptive event, reshaping supply chains and repricing risk, rather than a temporary price spike.

Key takeaway

The war with Iran is projected to be a prolonged conflict, not a short-term shock, despite initial US conventional military successes. This is due to Iran's asymmetric IRGCN retaining 80% of its small-boat fleet, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and driving Brent crude to \$108/barrel, coupled with a hardened Iranian regime and stalled diplomatic efforts. Businesses must therefore stress-test for sustained, multi-quarter disruption rather than planning for a rapid resolution, as the economic consequences will be structural and transformative.

Topics

• Iran-US War
• Strait of Hormuz
• IRGCN Asymmetric Warfare
• Global Energy Disruption
• Geopolitical Risk

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Editorial summary, takeaway, and curation by AIssential. Original article published by Thomson Reuters Institute.